Ned Naylor-Leyland on Gold & Silver's Next Move & Gold Silver Rise Into the 4th of July
- Gold and silver finished the week on firmer footing despite ongoing volatility. A weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs report and a softer U.S. dollar helped lift precious metals into the weekend, with spot gold closing near $4,175 per ounce, silver spot price at $62.42 per ounce, and the gold-to-silver ratio ending around 67:1.
- Physical bullion buyers continue stepping in on price weakness. Recent SD Bullion sales data suggests many precious metals investors are using the pullback to accumulate additional ounces through dollar-cost averaging rather than attempting to perfectly time the market bottom.
- Long-term charts continue to favor the broader bull market. Historical quarterly price charts for gold and silver suggest that, despite recent corrections, both metals remain in what many analysts view as a long-term "stair-step" advance rather than the end of the current secular bull market.
- Silver's breakout remains intact despite recent selling. After breaking free from nearly five decades of price containment last year, silver has retraced sharply, but the broader technical picture still points toward a market that remains fundamentally different from the range-bound environment of previous decades.
- Global monetary expansion continues to underpin the precious metals thesis. Fiat currency supplies continue expanding worldwide while gold's share of global monetary assets remains historically low. Some analysts argue substantially higher gold prices would be required simply to restore previous monetary coverage ratios.
- The physical silver market has cooled, but supply remains tight. Roughly 80 million ounces have exited silver ETFs since January's peak, easing record-high London lease rates. At the same time, India's higher import duties have slowed demand, while China continues accumulating silver at premium prices and warehouse inventories continue growing.
- Historic market volatility may offer perspective for today's investors. The report compares today's correction with the 2008 financial crisis, when silver plunged from roughly $21 to below $9 before rallying more than fivefold in the years that followed, illustrating how severe pullbacks have historically occurred within larger bull markets.
- Seasonality may become a tailwind in the months ahead. Long-term historical averages show that gold and silver have often generated stronger performance during the second half of the calendar year, although seasonal trends never guarantee future price action.
- Ned Naylor-Leyland says derivatives—not central banks—have driven recent price swings. The Jupiter Gold & Silver Fund manager argues that leveraged futures trading, trend-following funds, and CTA positioning have been the primary drivers of both the powerful rally and subsequent correction, with long-only investment capital still largely absent from the sector.
- Silver stackers remain focused on the long-term supply-demand story. While short-term price swings continue to be driven by leveraged financial markets, the longer-term investment case still centers on persistent industrial demand from technology, defense, and green energy alongside constrained mine supply—factors many physical bullion investors believe will continue supporting silver over time.
A weaker U.S. dollar and soft jobs data lifted gold and silver into the July 4 holiday, while tightening physical silver supplies, China's continued buying, and Ned Naylor-Leyland's market insights reinforce the long-term bullish case for precious metals.
Gold and Silver Market Update for Last Week
- The precious metals market rose to close the week with a weak US jobs report and relative USD.
- The spot silver price closed at $62.42 oz bid.
- The spot gold price closed the week at $4,175 oz bid.
- The spot gold silver ratio closed the week at 67.
I can see through SD Bullion company sales data that many of you all out there have increased your buying on recent price weakness in the precious metals. I'm not sure if the bottom is in, or if we have another bought of weakness to come. This is why buying in iterations on rolling price weakness makes sense.
Gold Silver Rise Into the 4th of July
We being with a historical quarterly price chart with data older than the nation itself.
This is the US dollar Gold price updated through last month June 2026.
Even with recent dramatic price selloffs in precious metals, silver and gold have begun another era of price stair stepping in time.
For all my fellow long term platinum bulls out there, here is an updated quarterly platinum price chart going all the way back to the industrial revolution of the late 1800s, when we finally began figuring out exclusive applications that only platinum now fulfills in our modern world.
Platinum is still historically cheap versus gold costing 2.5 oz of platinum to buy 1 oz of gold at the moment. For about half of the 20th Century 1 to 1 parity was the norm.
This is the US dollar Silver price updated through last month June 2026.
After late last year's break out from nearly a half century of price containment, the idea that silver's bull has come and is now gone is simply silver illiteracy.
The collective world is still rapidly expanding our collective fiat currency supplies (the blue line here headed to $150 trillion, that's not counting all of it btw), and physical gold values around the world depicted by the red line have barely begun the phenomenal trend to again account for this fact. To return toward a 40% coverage as we saw in 1980, gold needs to be priced closer to $10k oz w/o anymore currency creation and you know the latter is unlikely to stop expanding the fiat currency supplies.
President Trump posted late on July 3rd that his signature is now on the $100 bill. What an achievement.
Michael Oliver's Momentum Structure Analysis published similar long term trend charts for gold on the top, silver on the bottom. And while their short term bullishness in silver proved to be a bit hasty on timeline, their long term points made here remain standing.
The combination of some 80 million oz of silver pulled from unsecured silver ETFs since the late January 2026 peak, helped lower record high London silver lease rates illustrating tightness due to the physical silver squeeze phenomenon late last year.
The combination of silver sucked out of ETFs since the price sell off, and the recent quelling of Indian demand with substantially higher silver duties and import taxes has calmed the recent record tight silver market at least for now.
China continues buying silver at premium. Their combined SGE and SHFE warehouses nearing 60 million oz combined.
In the grand scheme of reported world 1000 oz silver bars held in silver ETFs and in private futures exchange warehouse like the COMEX, their silver inventory numbers remain dwarfed.
Gold and silver still have a lot of work to do in the coming years relative to all the fiat currency supplies and relative asset bubbles to achieve real gains relatively further to come. It will be in the levered derivative markets where most of the heaviest price appreciation lifting will take place (more on that in the second half of this week's update).
The ongoing silver price data outside COMEX hours has again ballooned to now near $400 oz which I maintain is the moving price target for the world silver market return back to supply demand balance or equilibrium.
This is the same data but in a logarithmic chart also starting in 1970 at $1.925 oz silver through yesterday.
This will become the 5th time the red silver spot price line returns to touch the blue line, it may take years in the future yet. But judging by silver late last year into the start of this year, that upward moving process I believe has begun.
After this break, we'll put this first half price selloff into historic seasonality and price movement context with silver and gold nearing now seemingly close to their respective bottoms.
Tavi Costa published this chart and it reminded me of when I first cut my teeth in this bullion industry. Some of my best bullion buys came out of that spot price panic.
For those of you around and buying gold and silver bullion in price volatile 2008 market, you'll recall how crazy that full year was not merely for gold but especially silver.
Spot gold from a then record nominal price high over $1000 oz to below $700 oz only to then be QE'd more than 2.5 fold in price within a few years that followed. Anyone buying bullion at the time did fine.
Silver was of course crazier, the manic depresso precious metal went from $21 to below $9 that year. Then more than a 5 folding in price only a few years that followed.
I was there for both, and I am telling you our future will rhyme in time.
This chart made the rounds this week on twitter X, basically the seasonality average of gold and silver over the last 20 years.
The second half due to seasonality is often best for the two precious metals.
You can see 50, 20, 10, and 5 yr price averages for Gold versus this year's craziness already.
Of course the Silver version of this data is more volatile and dramatic both up and down.
To close off this week, I want to give you a few highlights of a recent interview of Ned Naylor Leyland. Manager of $3bn Jupiter Gold & Silver Fund. The full link to the interview is in the show notes, but I will hit on the highlights of his most salient points.
Source:
Being Short Your Government: The Real Case for Gold & Silver with Ned Naylor-Leyland
https://youtu.be/8xWhfSGrO50?si=O2lbrVmyOuIvRotI
