Summary
- Gold volatility surged as the battle to establish $3,000/oz as long-term support intensifies, with longer-term bullish projections still intact despite recent price dips.
- Silver took a major hit, erasing three months of gains in just two days; sentiment among silver investors ranged from exhaustion to exhilaration.
- Bullion was exempt from recent reciprocal tariffs, which led to collapsing silver lease rates and massive COMEX silver inflows—over 150 million oz added since late 2023.
- The gold-silver ratio broke 100:1, a rare historical event (only the fourth time ever), signaling extreme undervaluation of silver relative to gold.
- Spot prices closed the week lower, with silver at $29.57/oz (down $4+) and gold at $3,036/oz, both facing pressure and potential further pullbacks.
- CME Group launched new retail-focused trading products, including spot-quoted futures and micro-leveraged contracts, signaling a coming wave of speculative participation.
- Physical delivery concerns persist, as only about half of COMEX silver inventory is truly deliverable—many bars are tied up in long-term investment or ETF structures.
- U.S. gold imports spiked so dramatically that they skewed GDP readings, and the NY Fed has set up faster trading infrastructure to potentially manage future commodity price surges.
- Historical comparison to 1970s and 1869 suggests another gold and silver mania may be forming, driven by derivative speculation, fiat devaluation, and mounting recession fears.
- Silver’s long-term upside is immense, especially when measured in strong currencies like the Swiss franc—tripling from current levels just to revisit 1980 highs, with fair value still far off.
Wild week of ups then downs for bullion bulls, out the gate first is stable genius gold.
We're gonna put this week's volatility in a long logarithmic chart perspective. Of course the battle for $3,000 oz appears underway. We'll get into possible shorter and medium term ideas later on this week's update. The most important takeaway is simply that gold is going through one of those volatile fights to ultimately make $3,000 oz a long term support for much higher moves to build on.
Before the hit on gold, Dr. Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research went on Bloomberg and reiterated his bullish gold price projection through the end of 2026.
Speaking of chaos, let's check in on silver's price melt down this week.
To end the Tariff Liberation week, we had two days of massive spot and futures silver selloffs that basically erased three months of upward gains.
Again, another long term log chart perspective so we don't get bucked off of this silver bull.
I did a quick sentiment poll on Twitter X as silver was melting down, and exhausting-depressing-exhilarating all 3 emotions were shared amongst respondents.
This week's Reciprocal Tariff news drops from the White House explicitly cited bullion as being exempt from import taxes. More on that topic in a minute.
TD's Daniel Ghali posted this chart yesterday showing the result of the bullion tariff exemption news. Collapsing silver lease rates which since the end of last year helped to drive nearly 150 million additional ounces of silver in the reported COMEX silver warehousing network.
A speed and scale that blows even the 2020 Covid COMEX inflows.
Ghali did cite recession risks as being the more salient risk of a sustainable reversal in price action. The EFP has surely gone flat for now.
For only the fourth time in recorded human history the spot gold silver ratio has broken through the century mark.
How much higher can it go?
I don't know. Are we going to go into another Great Taking Depression akin to 1933 or 1934?
Because otherwise, every other time modern markets continue to function whenever silver has spiked this cheaply low in relation to gold, it's not long before it sharply falls down hills and even collapses off cliffs.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent went on Tucker Carlson this week, and was asked about mass gold bullion imports which have been so large of late they threw off US GDP figures by 2.8% in the last reading.
Hat tip to Vince Lanci who posted this CME Group press release this week.
And it basically suggests to me a whole slew of things looking out at the eventual bullion bull market mania ahead.
CME Group is launching spot-quoted futures as new trading opportunities for retail investors. Yea like its the 1970s again. That's not all, the CME has also recently launched micro leveraged derivative contracts in 10 oz and 1 oz lot sizes.
Of course the publicly traded CME Group wants more trading volume profits, increased retail plankton in their levered casino, and perhaps that is partly why so much sucking sound from around the world for bullion has been also underway of late. Think about it, after winning the election the current administration began flooding the zone with threats of these coming tariffs and it ushered mass tonnage of bullion back into the domestic USA's futures commodity markets.
Also if you are the US government it makes sense that in the coming melt-up in gold, silver, eventually other precious metals and commodities it would make sense that you would want more levers at your fingertips to control the valuation escalations of commodities to come.
I mean the NY Fed literally set up a trading floor in early 2022 located near CME Group servers for faster trading executions in the controlled melt ups to come, best they can.
And while many onlookers are cheerleading the influx of supposed 1,000 oz silver bullion bars into the COMEX warehouse network. Allow me to remind everyone here that in 2021 the CME Group published a report that at the time admitted that only about half of the reported deliverable eligible pile for silver futures contracts within the warehouses was estimated to be deliverable. The other half was for long term investment by people who are unsecured creditors of those reported bars.
If we simply use that 50% figure applied to today, that's like 163 million oz of this supposed gargantuan silver pile that is actually pull-able. So good luck out there.
JP Morgan warehouse is more than half the alleged state side pile of unsecured silver ETF called SLV. None of its shareholders have title to any of those bars.
And the City of London reported this week they shipped out another 24 million oz of silver from its shrinking stockpiles.
It really doesn't matter being that the CME Group's COMEX NYMEX rule book allows for cash settlements no matter what, so there can never be a physical delivery default at the COMEX or the NYMEX, ever.
It will likely morph into another Gold Black Friday like rhyme in history. Back when the old post-Civil War Green back went into worthlessness helping to spur a phantom levered long gold derivative price mania to the upside. Where the price of gold ran in short order from $20.67 to $160 oz, in 1869.
All it takes is large exchanges around the world, and here in the USA full of levered derivative trading degenerates infused with mixes of greed and collapsing currency fears, in order to drive bullion into another mania phase for the history books.
All the conditions are setting up, yet again. So if bullion indeed goes un-obtainium, it won't matter, the mania will just trade levered phantom derivatives exponentially, as has happened in our nation's past.
The silver gold markets were down big on the week's trading.
The spot silver price fell over $4 oz on the week finishing at $29.57 oz bid with bears eyes looking to cut further lower next week.
The spot gold price fell sharply to close the week at $3,036 oz bid.
The spot Gold Silver Ratio went into rarified air blasting through 100 for only the fourth time in human financial history finishing the week at 102 and yet premiums on bullion inventories have barely risen, at least for now.
Gold nerd factoid at these price levels of weight parity between 1 gram of gold and 1 fiat Federal Reserve $100 note. Actually given industry costs associated with distributing a gram of gold, a piece that tiny is worth more the $100 dollar bill. That's an over -90% devaluation of the fiat US dollar versus gold this century, since the year 2000.
That trend isn't stopping until gold goes into history books, so plan accordingly.
In terms of how hard could the selloff in gold get?
Well I have been hammering the table about eventually revisiting the 200 day moving average for all bullion bulls that is the normal healthy way to clear out the froth. The 200 day currently is just below $2,700 oz.
But talking to dear friends this week I shared with them this chart suggesting a battle below $3,000 is likely ahead as it has always been when gold turns a new thousand an ounce mark into long-term support.
As for the still stonk bubble S&P 500 devaluing to gold, that is an ongoing process now down to 1.67 this week.
One to one parity and then lower still is our likely future as the current administration claims publicly that wealth disparity has gone too far. So adjust your portfolios accordingly.
As for the still stock bubble versus left for dead incredible set up silver. Gold will lead of course, and once silver gets running an eventual tube or 20 troy ounces of silver will likely afford you the nominal S&P 500 judging from silver bullion bull markets past.
Of course it will be exhausting, at times depressing, but ultimately exhilarating for my fellow silver bullion bulls out there.
Update on my favorite undervalued market for silver, being the strengthening fiat Swiss franc of late. With this recent selloff, silver has to still triple from today's spot price just to get back to its old 1980 high in much more powerful francs at the time.
That is how far silver has to run. Fair value is not in question at least until that vertical spike turns the chart on the eight into a U shape, then it goes beyond and higher still.
For I remain convinced that before the coming ride mania phases out, the current full fiat currency era performance by gold on this chart will eventually be closed by a silver moonshot as it did during the latter 1970s and early 1980 Western driven bull.
In a bullion bull, you load up on price big dips. Now is that time.
That will be all for our weekly SD Bullion Market Update.
And, as always, to you out there.
Take great care of yourselves and those you love.
