Gold Pauses, Silver Climbs: Breakout Ahead? Central Banks, Market Stress, Bullion Set to Surge
- Precious metals delivered a mixed performance, with silver edging higher to ~$69.76 oz while gold held flat near $4,494 oz, reflecting a market in consolidation rather than trend reversal.
- Early-week trading was subdued as macro headwinds—namely a stronger U.S. dollar and rising interest rate expectations—continued to weigh on bullion prices.
- Geopolitical tensions, particularly tied to Middle East dynamics, triggered margin calls and “sell-the-winners” behavior, forcing liquidation in previously profitable gold and silver positions.
- Despite short-term weakness, the long-term bullish thesis remains intact, underpinned by persistent fiat currency debasement and structural supply-demand imbalances.
- Silver’s industrial story strengthened further, with ongoing supply deficits and rising demand from solar, EV, and clean energy sectors—especially across Asia and India.
- Physical gold demand surged in stressed economies, notably Turkey, where shortages and extreme premiums highlighted gold’s role as a currency hedge amid rapid local currency devaluation.
- Institutional flows remained negative in the West, with over 115 tons exiting COMEX and ETF holdings during the recent pullback, signaling continued deleveraging pressure.
- Central bank and sovereign actions took center stage: France repositioned gold reserves domestically, while Russia imposed capital controls and restricted gold exports, underscoring tightening global monetary conditions.
- Diverging regional dynamics emerged in silver markets, with tightness and backwardation in China contrasting against rising inventories and falling lease rates in London.
- Broader macro concerns intensified, including U.S. fiscal imbalances and debt burdens, reinforcing gold and silver’s long-term appeal as monetary hedges despite current cyclical pressure.
Amid global shortages, central bank maneuvers, and shifting investor flows, the latest pullback may be masking a far bigger move ahead in precious metals.
Last week's trading for silver and gold started softly and here is a brief clip of mainstream financial media narratives covering them to begin this week.
Precious metal prices continue consolidating after the last few years of gains, as long term bulls continue looking for bottom dip buying opportunities.
Iran driven energy price shock margin calls forcing many to precious metal winners to sell, recent market shifts in U.S. interest-rate expectations, and relative fiat US dollar strength have all been keeping precious-metals prices lower for longer.
The long-term structural case for gold and especially silver have not changed.
Silver supply deficits continue, growing industrial demand from clean energy application demands are rising with ongoing issues in world oil markets. Solar and EV auto demand in Asia is seeing continued growth, new market interest, and solar infrastructure investment plans of late in India or example.
The question for investors right now is where the short-term macro headwinds against precious metals will ease up for the next leg of this structural bullion bull to begin climbing again.
Last few months, the fiat US dollar has been relatively stronger, the fiat Fed remains tight with interest rates climbing quickly, and precious metals like gold and silver suffering headwinds from both factors.
In a bullion bull market, if and when spot prices fall back towards their 200 day moving averages, that is generally a good time to add to positions over the long run.
And while some out there, might try and have you believe that no one else is buying the bullion price dip.
I can tell you that isn't true by simply looking at SD Bullion company's own internal sales volume data of late.
Many of you out there have also been heavily buying this pullback in precious metals spot prices.
Reports this week showed a severe run on the physical gold market in Turkey. There were $250 oz bid ask spreads on high in demand gold kilo bars and reports of no inventory in many shops.
Long term, both gold and silver have protected local's purchasing power.
The local fiat lira has been devaluing sharply of late, and locals are buying other hard currencies and bullion to protect their savings the best they can.
Even the local government had to sell and swap about 60 tons of gold to the tune of around $8 billion in fiat US dollar buying power to intervene in their local currency markets.
In the Bloomberg report they acknowledged that much of the Turkish gold selling could have been swap agreements in London. And cynically one is left to wonder which bank in charge of these swap agreements used them to their market making advantage on the short side in the recent short term gold price selloffs.
Over the past month the combined COMEX and gold ETF market have shed over 115 tons of gold in the price pullback.
Western world gold allocations are still only about 1/4th to 1/3rd what they peaked at in market share terms in August 2011. Just another sign this recent $5600 spike was not a manic but instead a local price top for now.
France made gold news this week announcing their selling gold reserves once held in the NY Fed and converting those proceeds back into more modern official gold reserve bars onshore in Europe realizing a capital gain of nearly $15 billion in fiat US dollars.
Russia announced capital controls on cash of over $100,000 US dollars and disallowing the export of gold bars larger than 100 grams or just over 3 troy ounces effective May 1st, 2026.
Russia also has sold around a half million ounces, or 15.5 tons of gold reserves the first two months of this year likely bolstering their ongoing war time budget.
Turning to industrial silver inventories, we saw a slight climb this week in China's combined SGE and SHFE exchanges holding a combined 21.6 million oz of silver between the two.
Silver on the SHFE is still in backwardation and high price premiums above Western world price benchmarks continue being paid locally in China for 15 kilo sized industrial silver bullion bars.
Silver lease rates in London continue falling with some inventory buildups given Western silver ETF selloffs of late.
Registered silver and eligible silver 1000 oz bar inventory levels on the COMEX both continue falling here US state side.
Leaving some bank analysts like Christopher Whalen to publicly speculate this week that price power continues shifting to the western world, as he buys the recent precious metals price dips.
The silver and gold markets where a mixed bag slightly up and flat respectively this week.
The spot silver price ended the week at $69.76 oz bid.
The spot gold price closed the week basically flat at $4494 oz bid.
The spot gold silver ratio fell slightly to close this week at 64.
The week's trading for silver and gold started softly and here is a brief clip of mainstream financial media narratives covering them to begin this week.
In terms of the US stock market versus gold, the current S&P 500 / Gold Ratio closed at 1.42 oz this week, up a bit from the recent late Jan 2026 low near 1.27 oz of gold to afford the nominal S&P 500.
I maintain later in this ongoing secular bullion bull market, it will eventually only cost fractions of an ounce of gold to be able to buy the nominal S&P 500 as occurred both during the 2011 and 1980 bullion bull markets.
On the silver side of this important real value ratio. It currently costs about 91 oz of silver to afford one share of the S&P 500, about 50% more expensive in silver terms that is cost when only 59 oz of silver bullion could buy the US stock market nominal index in late Jan 2026.
Of course my contention remains this ratios return back toward and below its 2011 low levels near 30 oz of silver, down towards the 1980 low levels below 10 oz of silver to afford the S&P 500 remains plausible in time.
In terms of gold versus the 200 day moving average we are closing in on $4100 oz gold which we briefly ticked to start the price selloff week in Asia.
This is a broader full fiat currency era context for gold spot prices versus their 200 day moving averages over time.
This week the Trump Administration began examining what a world of $200 a barrel would mean for the economy, meanwhile much of the world is increasingly looking at high industrially laced silver green energy alternatives in such a future.
The good news is, pretty soon we'll all get the President's signature in our wallets to celebrate the 250th Anniversary of the USA.
None of this changes the debt quandary we are increasingly in as a nation and broader worldwide.
Fortune magazine highlighted this past week the US assets to liability mismatch ongoing.
Estimating the combined hard debt near $39 trillion and around $88 trillion unfunded liabilities to be paid through the remainder of this century.
Putting the US budget into household terms, it is like making $52 grand a year, spending $73 grand per year, with about $60 grand in assets, and $1.3 million in not saved for debt piles to come.
Of course this household has a currency creating keypad and all sorts of ways to further devalue the currency units coming due in future.
So swapping out fiat US dollars now for bullion while they are reasonably priced still makes long term sense given the damning of the situation unfolding.
Sources:
Yoann Bourgeois Captivates Audience with Powerful Performance About Life ( Original Video )
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x_DA3dgRSrw
Iran War: Gold, Silver Price Drop on Bloomberg March 23, 2026
https://youtu.be/tT7CbZG9v5s?si=ab2uO-Gcrc8U1rWa
$100 Silver Price is COMING BACK! (LISTEN CLOSE)
https://youtu.be/Ue_Je6ZhVrQ?si=PC5X-fQvYWSWUZS7
Turkey’s $8 Billion Gold Drawdown on Iran War Hits Bullion
https://archive.is/meuhQ#selection-1783.0-1783.215
