China’s Silver Market Dominance: The World’s Most Critical Metal Faces a New Gatekeeper
- Silver just blew past $60, and while a brief pullback wouldn’t surprise anyone, the bigger takeaway is this: once you’re above old highs, the market starts feeling around for new ground—$64 to $65 is the next neighborhood to watch.
- This move doesn’t look like a one-day headline pop. Structurally, silver appears more likely to test $65 before revisiting $50, supported by strong physical demand and unusually persistent buyer activity.
- Here’s something flying under the radar: U.S. silver refining is clogged. One major refiner is even turning away ultra-pure 3–9 fine silver—not because it’s bad metal, but because capacity just isn’t there.
- On the supply side, silver deficits aren’t theoretical anymore. Industrial demand (EVs, electronics, solar) doesn’t blink when prices rise, especially in Asia, where manufacturers are quietly locking in physical inventory.
- A major market rumor worth watching: over 7,300 COMEX contracts (~36.7 million ounces) allegedly stood for delivery around Thanksgiving, possibly forcing a behind-the-scenes negotiation and costly rollover.
- Shortly after, JP Morgan shifted roughly 13.4 million ounces from “eligible” (deliverable) to “registered” (non-deliverable) inventory—fueling speculation that physical supply is tighter than headlines admit.
- Historically, silver is a little… bipolar. It can go nowhere for years, then double faster than anyone expects. The current surge fits past bull-market patterns eerily well.
- A lot of noise gets louder when silver runs. Some viral claims—like traders fleeing to Singapore overnight—don’t hold up. Not every rumor is signal, but some deserve careful watching.
- One myth worth busting: ETFs are not the same as owning metal. They offer price exposure, not possession—and in tight markets, that distinction matters more than most investors realize.
- Big picture? Both gold and silver look early in a longer bull cycle. Analysts see real potential for triple-digit silver over time and a sharply lower gold-silver ratio as physical scarcity becomes harder to ignore.
With export controls now in play, China’s dominance in silver refining and industrial demand is reshaping global supply chains—and raising hard questions for manufacturers, investors, and policymakers alike.
That clip was from my conversation about ongoing silver and gold markets "$60 Silver?! PLUS: Gold & Silver Myths—FACT or FICTION? " recorded Wednesday December 10, 2025 morning with SD Bullion COO Cole Keller.
One of the more important slides and interesting gigantic Silver tonnage movements from the deliverable warranted Registered pile back into the undeliverable not futures contract warranted Eligible pile was this all time record sized movement of 13.4 million oz within the JP Morgan COMEX warehouse around the time of the suppose CME Server meltdown for 10 hours on Thanksgiving night.
The suspicion is that large Asian COMEX longs were looking to pull a gigantic amount of 1,000 oz silver bars from various COMEX shorts, and the resulting 10 hour negotiations required a cover story for the public at large to remain asleep.
The supposed silver market gorilla of JP Morgan's Registered pile has been effectively cut in half, down to a mere 16.8 million oz in a world running multi-hundred million ounce deficits yr after yr now since Covid basically broke this market's pricing structure between the West and the East.
I know, I have harped over this eye-raising silver price divergence price data and chart for years now. But as the first in the public domain to do that, I would like to stay on the cutting edge and help us all look a little forward towards 2026 and what kind of craziness likely lies ahead for the world's increasingly bifurcated silver market.
Next month China is introducing export controls for silver, a critical mineral for the USA and any developed or emerging economies.
China isn't just "traditionally" a major player in the silver market having been involved using silver as the money through Mexico to Europe which establish global trade long before the USA was even a formal country.
No, instead now in late 2025, China is the world's dominate gatekeeper to new line mined silver worldwide and to come thanks to their gigantic silver refining infrastructure.
This article, which I will backlink in the show notes states. "This policy transformation affects approx. 60-70% of global silver supply that has historically flowed from Chinese mining operations and dore imports to Western markets."
Silver lease rates in London have risen to as high as 8 to 9% this week from varying sources.
Bruce Ikemizu of the Japanese Bullion Association also highlights that lease rates in two other structural supply deficit markets Platinum and Palladium are both elevate in London as well.
Momentum Structure Analysis' Michael Oliver has adjusted his highest level call for silver going into the first half of next year 2026.
He has been painting a picture in recent public domain interviews and within their research of a new elevated price structure for silver coming next year, one that is in triple digit landía potentially multiples from here.
I know, it sound nuts not merely to normies, but also too to many grizzled long haul stackers watching this video.
He cited recent historic base metal markets that broke out of multi-decade price channel ranges and into new higher price paradigm structures in short order.
Specifically in 2005, back when China was stockpiling gigantic never before seen amounts of base metals like copper and lead.
Here you can see copper demand from China in 2005 basically 3-folding the then price within about a year's timeframe into 2006.
Similar story for lead in about a two year timeframe.
Silver is finally this year busting out of a 45 year range.
And the demand for both industrial silver applications be them in solar panels, or cars the likes of which are often now electric in China. Well they got to have silver, so export controls 2026-2027. Good luck India, and the Western world, China is going to take care of its ongoing and upcoming silver demands first.
Stick around, other side of this short break we're going to go through Silver price doubling or more history on a year over year basis. You'll be surprised how often this has happened and how high it has gone at times.
The spot silver price briefly broke above $64 oz today and set a new nominal price high weekly close at $61.80 oz bid.
The spot gold price ended this week with strength trading at close above a $4,300 oz bid price.
The spot gold silver ratio ends this week at 69 with a intra-week dip down to 66 illustrating the momentum being still with the silver market.
Guesses for Central Bank Gold demand to close this year, and for the entire next year 2026 are being published in public as the world bullion over bonds trade continues onwards.
Anywhere from 750 to over 1000 tons is the finger in the air guesswork. All tonnage volumes higher than anything seen during the post WW2 Bretton Woods gold raid from the then United States's once powerhouse over 20,000 ton hoard.
The fiat silver Canadian price keeps blasting northward. No to the tune of 1 oz American Silver Eagle coins being priced at triple digits per oz retail.
Even with all this silver price running here and in Canada, the nominal prices for silver in two of the most overvalued fiat currencies in the world, both Japan and Switzerland have yet to hit their 1980 nominal price high levels in then much stronger fiat currency units.
Synched with the silver price from 1971, the Japanese yen in red and the Swiss franc in green both have a date with the high ninety percentile to come.
Both currency units originally defined as weights in fine silver weights, the irony is not lost on any financial historian stackers.
Japanese investors aren't taking the devaluation of their fiat yen laying down, some of them have piled into unsecured Gold ETFs to the tune of six fold gold tonnage bought this year in 2025 dwarfing last year 2024.
The reported Indian silver ETF pile keeps growing claiming now over 102 million ounces. Reports this week state that Indian Pensions are now being allowed to invest in Gold Silver funds, the only laughable part of this news is the pathetic 1% allocation allowed thus far. At the very least things are moving in the right direction there.
Finally to close, I want to remind you that ever since Constitutional silver came out of our circulating coinage in the USA, and ever since the old $1.29 oz silver price rig broke in 1967. The silver price on a year to year percentage move basis has effectively doubled or more in price some 11 instances over the last 58 years.
Yes this has happened and often the secular silver bull market spanning decades come in increasing waves of upside.
In 1967 we saw a simple price doubling, then in 1974 a silver price doubling, and from early 1979 into 1980 silver ran from around $6 to $50 in about 13 months.
So yea in nominal terms this could get to looking real silly from here through perhaps many points next year.
REFERENCES:
China Silver Export Restrictions (2026-2027) Transform Global Market Dynamics:
https://discoveryalert.com.au/china-silver-export-restrictions-impact-2025
Gold and the Great Unraveling | Michael Oliver w/ James Anderson - Nov 9, 2018:
https://youtu.be/BZZnRVc0UGk?si=RHsQzFs0wA3g9THJ
James Anderson with Cole Keller of SD Bullion:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OellcvBZii0
