SUMMARY: Precious Metals Markets Signal Supply Squeeze as Platinum and Silver Tighten
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Platinum Market Squeeze: Platinum lease rates are soaring, signaling extremely tight physical supply globally. Inventories in London and Zurich are reportedly depleted, with NYMEX stocks down over 55% since April 2025.
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China's Platinum Demand: Despite claims to the contrary, China remains the top platinum consumer—driven by auto manufacturing, glass, and oil refining industries—and is likely absorbing Western inventories.
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ETF Vulnerabilities: Western platinum and silver ETFs are expected to be the next source of physical bullion as warehouse stocks dwindle. Many of these ETFs are unsecured and may not hold actual metal.
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Silver ETF Inflows in India: India is becoming a dominant force in silver ETF/ETP demand, with nearly 95 million ounces flowing into silver funds globally in 2025—yet this is still considered small relative to market risks.
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London Price Discovery Losing Ground: India’s regulators now favor local spot pricing for precious metals ETFs, signaling a shift away from London's dominance in price discovery for gold and silver.
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Gold Price Surge on Political Rhetoric: Gold briefly spiked to $3,375 oz midweek after Donald Trump mentioned potentially firing Fed Chair Jerome Powell, before settling back to $3,350 oz.
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Gold to Silver Ratio Climbs: The ratio rose to 87 this week, with silver retreating slightly to $38.17 oz while gold strengthened—highlighting a potential opportunity for silver to catch up.
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Growing Demand for Alternative Assets: The U.S. government is considering allowing retirement accounts (401k, IRA) to include assets like gold and crypto, indicating a broader acceptance of hard assets.
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Stablecoin Regulation Passes: The new "Genius Act" regulates fiat-pegged stablecoins, reinforcing a pivot to regulated private digital currencies over a central bank digital currency (CBDC).
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Silver Still Considered Undervalued: Long-term market cycles suggest silver tends to lag gold but historically stages a dramatic outperformance later in bull markets. The call to “stack silver” remains strong.
From soaring lease rates to shifting global demand and weakening London price control, bullion investors face a rapidly evolving landscape in 2025.
Last week, we covered how London lease rates in both platinum and silver markets have been spiking of late signaling tightness and even low to near no inventory in platinum.
And while with silver prices backing and filling this week, lease rates have come down a touch, the opposite is true for lease rates for platinum.
Long time Japanese precious metals trader Bruce Ikemizu of the Japanese Bullion Market Association posted the following on his LinkedIn today.
His final point about China perhaps not needing much platinum doesn't hold water when we examine platinum market supply demand fundamentals nor recent history in NYMEX platinum warehouses.
China alone demands nearly 1/3rd of all Platinum mined having near none in its soils. Africa, specifically South Africa then Russia is mainly where platinum ore is mined.
Platinum Group Metal consuming industries like auto manufacturing, glass exports, and oil refined products China now leads the rest of the world in all 3 facets.
Add on the fact that would be gold buyers in China are likely thrifting to relatively historically underpriced platinum as investments and for jewelry and we have the current setup.
Exploding platinum lease rates and vanishing supplies.
Just yesterday Mr. Bruce opined on his LinkedIn that while both London and Zurich appear empty on supplies, at least China and NY's NYMEX have inventories.
Well, that might be true but only to small diminishing degree.
Platinum in 2025 is about an 8 million oz physical supply demand market globally. Tiny, something on order of about $12 billion per year.
And similar to silver, the platinum industry body is pointing out platinum market supply deficits for the next four years running.
Cut to the supposedly ample supply of platinum in NYMEX warehouses. Having reached a recent peak of inventory near 630k oz in April 2025 (like 3 months ago), that supply has been reduced by around -55% in perhaps the last 100 days or so.
That former large pile accrued during the Covid 2020 bullion squeeze to North America, it ended up flowing out mostly to China, unlikely to return in our lifetimes.
If the middle and late 2010s Palladium market is any guide, the next source of platinum bullion raiding as the Nymex gets depleted will likely be unsecured Western World platinum ETFs and ETPs.
The largest list is here.
If you doubt me, try reading their respective prospectus. In highest likelihood unsecured shareholders in these proxies own no platinum bullion, they merely pay fees for the privilege of platinum price risks ongoing.
You might be new here, thinking what does this clown on youtube know about platinum?
Well, I know industry spokes-bodies out of London told the world two months ago that platinum was forecast to average $970 oz up +1% this year, supported by deficits but limited by above ground supplies.
How's that forecast working out?
This is not to say platinum is going moon tomorrow.
But if you actually bother to study platinum market history, its stair step spot price reality is one of booms then busts in price action.
It seems we have now entered a new platinum squeeze cycle given all factors at play.
To more generally drive home a broader perspective of tightening metals markets, TD's Daniel Ghali went on BNN this week to hammer home the point that metals in short supply inevitably need higher prices and relative values to come.
In another sign that London is losing its luster when it comes to gold and silver price discovery, India's market regulator Sebi has recently proposed that asset management companies use spot prices published by local commodity exchanges for valuing gold and silver held by ETFs and ETPs, instead of international (in other words London prices).
And while headlines of Silver ETFs / ETPs getting near 95 million oz of net inflows thus far in 2025 sounds large, $40 billion in total unsecured silver ETF value the world over is tiny considering the precarious state of precious metals markets looking ahead.
It's not surprising that one of the fastest growing silver ETF and ETP markets in the world is India.
Given its current rate of silver ETF and ETP rates of growth it is no surprise that they want to keep their pricing powers more localized.
After all global metals markets are signaling that is the growing trend worldwide.
We'll be right back with more silver and gold news, after this quick break.
The silver and gold markets were a bit mixed this week.
After such a strong run in silver late last week, it was no surprise to see price action back and filling finishing at $38.17 oz bid.
The spot gold price was up on the week closing at $3,350 oz bid.
Given gold's relative strength over silver this week the spot gold silver ratio climbed to 87.
Before we leave this chart, do you see the quick spike in the gold price mid week to near $3,375 oz seemingly out of nowhere.
Well that was the result of President Donald Trump alluding to the potential of firing fiat Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell.
Those comments were toned down not long after and thus the gold price receded somewhat intra-week.
Trump also seems to be confused on how Jerome Powell got into his chairmanship stating the following this week.
In another sign that the current administration is in search of new pools of capital to help finance the coming waves of escalating US debt issuances for years and decades to come.
News this week suggests that the administration is looking to open up 401k and IRAs to more alternative assets like crypto, gold, private equity, and other alternative assets.
It also appears the administration's Genius Act was signed into law today. A law which supposedly regulates 'payment stablecoins' digital assets allegedly pegged 1:1 to the fiat USD. And also allegedly backed by reserves like cash or US Treasuries. So no fiat Federal Reserve CBDC, instead regulated private ones surely all having back door access from their very regulators in the US government.
The fiat US dollar's final boss showdown is with gold and it has been losing market share increasingly so globally speaking as on net central banks continue bypassing bonds and buying gold bullion reserves in volumes never seen before on record.
If gold leads in bullion bulls, white metals like platinum and especially silver eventually follow.
Here is the COMEX CME Group pumping silver fundamentals.
What they fail to point in silver's ongoing demand factors is hidden under 'Other Uses'. Instead of risk laden levered proxies they want you to trade in, simply buy the real thing with silver bullion as you await the coming investment demand waves mostly driven by the USA and India ahead.
Throughout this full fiat currency era, the trend has been simply that gold leads laggard silver which later in the bullion bull markets stages a furious rally outperforming gold akin to what it did in the late 1970s and post-2008 GFC runs.
Owning varying gold, platinum, and silver bullion allocations in this current world all make sense with varying timelines associated. For myself it is the closing of the silver vs gold gap reoccurring that has me still stacking silver bullion regularly given how relatively cheap it remains versus almost anything you can name.
Take advantage of Silver Coin at Spot deals this weekend while supplies last at SDBullion.com
That will be all for this week's SD Bullion Market Update.
And as always, take great care of yourselves and those you love.
References:
CME Group: Is Silver Poised to Catch Up to Gold's Record Rally?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rxylz4xv-Ns
Daniel Ghali: Metal markets are fragmenting amid tariff war
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CFJ0NBkwYUA
