Summary
- Gold has shown significant leadership in the bullion market, with prices reaching $2,618 per ounce by the end of 2024, representing a 25% increase against the US dollar.
- Silver closed at $29.34 per ounce, also showing strong performance with nearly 25% gains, though it experienced some disappointment after falling below its 200-day moving average.
- The gold-silver ratio finished at 89, after fluctuating throughout the year, dropping to the low 70s in May before returning to higher levels.
- European markets saw substantial precious metal gains, with gold rising 35% against the Euro and 28.5% against the British pound.
- Asian markets demonstrated strong performance, with Chinese gold prices increasing by 30% and Indian markets showing gold and silver gains of over 33% and 31% respectively against the rupee.
- The Australian and Canadian dollars experienced significant depreciation against precious metals, losing approximately 38% against gold and 35% against silver.
- Professional analysts maintain a bullish consensus for 2025, with many predicting gold to reach $3,000 per ounce and silver potentially hitting $40 per ounce.
- Swiss precious metals refiner Heraeus and SAXO Bank's Ole Hanson both supported these bullish predictions for 2025.
- A notable observation regarding the S&P 500 shows just 10 companies now accounting for 40% of the index, which some analysts view as a concerning sign of market concentration.
- Long-term value charts using precious metals as an objective measurement suggest a potential return to 2011 market lows, despite ongoing market interventions.
I hope you are having a wonderful holiday season wherever you are watching this week's Bullion Market Update.
We are going to begin this week by taking a large look around the world for where gold and silver are trending to end 2024.
And in the second half we will look at many of your opinions and the opinions of other market analysts to get a sense of what could be in store for monetary precious metals in the year to come and beyond.
Let's start with a general view of how gold and silver have been trading worldwide indexed to 2010 GDP market share of the largest 20 economies and their respective fiat currency values versus each precious metal ongoing.
In a bullion bull market gold leads, and its breakout leadership on this chart is recently obvious.
When we see silver's ongoing relative fiat price action according to this 20 leading economy GDP weighting, we can see we're already pumping up against old seemingly ancient price high levels.
If you have been paying attention to sentiment in silver of late, you'll know it froze with disappointment having now fallen below its 200 day moving average. This is normal, it is an emotional market with the baton between euphoria and depression often past amongst participants.
Onward to key markets and their annual price performance wicks.
If you don't understand how to read a price chart wick, press pause and stare at this image for a minute.
In the USA in 2024, there was a brief retest of the 2,000 oz support level to start the year followed by spot gold going on a near $800 oz rise. In a consolidation range ever since.
On the year the fiat US dollar has lost over -25% of its purchasing power gold bullion.
On the silver side of the equation the fiat US dollar has lost just under -25%, a similar story mirroring gold from March until late October, spot silver ran from $22 to nearly $35 oz.
How large a red or blue bar next year?
We'll get into those guesses shortly.
The spot gold silver ratio was a tail of two halves this year, falling to the low 70s by late May only to have retraced back to nearly where we started the year up in the high 80s.
The fiat Euro gold price has risen nearly 35% this year. Silver is up +32% this year, again mirroring gold's strength but not outperforming yet.
The spot gold price in fiat pounds not sterling is up about 28.5% on the year. Up around 26% in silver, you can see their price is already higher than the old ancient 1980 high, the high from 2011 could get passed in due course.
Off to the eastern world, Chinese gold is up +30% on the year with silver up 28% and a chart that looks like it is ready to start running higher with more blue bars to come.
The gold spot price in Switzerland is up over 36% locally, with silver running up +33% through this year.
I know, their silver chart looks crazy. The current local Swiss silver price still has to nominally triple just to reach their old nominal 1980 price high level. And that is with fiat Swiss franc gold prices already broken out making new record highs persistently.
We are still very early in this bullion bull. Swiss silver blowing beyond its seemingly ancient 1980 high is inevitable, only a question of exactly when and under which conditions that comes about.
Fiat Aussie gold is off and flying high up 38% on the year. Silver down under is down under no more likely to finish this year higher than any nominal price high prior. A forewarning of silver price
breakouts to come everywhere in time.
The fiat Canadian dollar has also been losing big time to gold and silver in 2024 down -38% and -35% versus each monetary metal.
Finally another major market in both the gold silver markets, the fiat rupee has lost over -33% vs gold and -31% vs silver this year. Look for more silver investment demand to be coming from India in 2025 as buyers attempt to make gains versus gold on a relative basis to come.
On the other side of this short break, we'll get a view of what hundreds of you all are thinking is in store for next year.
And see just how delusional some stock market bubble participants have become.
The spot silver and gold markets traded slightly down on this holiday shortened week.
The spot silver price closed at $29.34 oz bid and the spot gold price finished at $2,618 oz bid.
The spot gold silver ratio moved higher to finish at 89.
In terms of professional precious metals analysts viewpoints for next year, the bullish consensus remains with around $3,000 oz being the target high next year.
Many bulls are calling another timeframe where the spot gold silver ratio tightens back towards the lower 70s and thus calls of silver running to $40 oz next year are pretty common.
These are the spot price ranges Swiss precious metals refiner Heraeus publicly published this week.
Ole Hanson of SAXO Bank echoed these calls of $3,000 oz gold and $40 oz silver as well.
On the key deluded stock bubble side of the investing world equation, I put out a poll simply asking when, if ever, the nominal S&P 500 will again reach 1:1 parity with the spot gold price. For about half the financial history of the USA that ratio has been below one. It last occurred in the late 2000s and early 2010s.
To my surprise about 1 in 5 of the 100 poll answers said never again. No more parity to come forever more.
So yes, we live in a world in which recency bias clouds people into using the terms never when discussing what can happen in fiat financialized markets.
You might see this chart and data showing how only 10 companies now account for 40% of the S&P 500 and think strength. I would argue it is passive investing lunacy that will learn the hard way in real terms if it stays cornered and crowded in those names for too much longer.
And while there will be more seemingly endless market interventions to come, long term real value charts using the hardest monies as the objective measurement suggest the old 2011 lows are going to be meet again, come what may.
That will be all for our weekly SD Bullion Market Update.
And as always to you out there, take great care of yourselves and those you love.
