In the global derivative-driven gold price discovery markets, price action history often rhymes.
The Gold spot price again got a post-US Presidential election $100 oz price shaving to start this past week.
The waterfall gold price selloff followed on the heels of the media's Biden US Presidential win proclamation late last week, and it coincided with Monday's Pfizer Covid19 vaccine headline.
The spot price of gold has since chopped sideways slightly up since this waterfall sell-off.
Later in this week's SD Bullion market update, we will relook at key potential downside price point levels to target should there be more selloffs this month.
Look back at the 2016 US Presidential election gold spot sell-off data. We can see near the same amount of notional fiat Federal Reserve notes underlying these COMEX gold futures contract trading volumes, flushed longs into cascading price stop-loss selling.
Stay tuned to the end of this update. I will give you my potential target and timeframe, for I think we still have a bit more in price consolidations upcoming.
Although the media has already called the 2020 election for Biden, that’s not who has the final say. Both the current US President and his supporters remain adamant that their actions and legal appeals will turn the tide in favor of the Trump administration winning this election before it is all said and done.
We're going to begin this week hearing from an often outspoken gold and financial market commentator, the best selling author James G. Rickards or Jim Rickards.
Who had the following essential points in a Daily Reckoning article he penned this past Monday, entitled "It's Going to the Supreme Court.”
Not only is the Executive branch still floating in the wind of political control, so too is the US Senate.
If the Democrats somehow run the table in all three of these races, I expect gold and silver spot prices to ramp in early Q1 2021 once the market finds out.
Look at the last month of transparent silver ETF and commodity exchange inflows. The JP Morgan custodian guarded SLV is still getting the majority of inflows. That has been the record pace case for the entirety of 2020, with a reported over 250 million ounces of silver flowing to supposedly backstop that one silver derivative alone (over 1/4th of annual silver demand going to one supposedly bullion backstopped derivative alone).
The chart here on the right shows the amount of silver value held within all these ETFs and exchanges. And I suggest this is about the look that the silver spot price chart will have later in 2021 into the year 2022 as silver makes another run to and eventually through $50 oz.
On the potential downside price consolidation lows for gold and silver through the upcoming weeks.
We'll start with the longer-term 200-day moving average gold chart so you can better understand my reasoning.
During this full fiat currency era, gold bull markets come with two runs; the second one ends with a manic blow-off top. A majority of the valuation and nominal gains typically happen in the final exponential price movement vertically.
During these green blocked sections, the 200-day moving average often acts as support. In my opinion, we’re due to test the low 1800 even high 1700 an ounce price floor likely in November 2020.
So I am holding cash to buy if this price dip comes to pass in the next few weeks.
Note for the silver version of this chart. The 200-day moving price average for silver is currently in the low $20s oz. While it is possible, I think we will again see a silver spot price in the teens denominating the fiat Federal Reserve; those days may never be coming back. More doubtfully, we will ever see silver bullion on sale in the fiat USD teens per troy ounce again.
Finally, below is the Gold Silver Ratio version of this 200 day moving average chart during the full fiat era.
During significant bull market moves where silver outperforms gold, in the bottom half of the chart, you can see that the blue line dips and stay below the red colored zero line, often for years at a time.
I argue we are in one of those eras now and should outlast the 1979 and 2010 to 2011 versions. We may float back and retest that red horizontal line, only to snap back beyond the old 2011 low as the silver market gets manic.
Basically, in short, time is running out as one of the final excellent bullion and precious metal entry points is upon us. Once this election mess gets settled, and Q1 2021 is entirely underway, we will have to deal with the ongoing horror of our Main Street economy and viral crisis growing worse by the day.
Some of you out there don't want to hear this, but I will stick with the damning data ongoing because it matters to fiscal, monetary, and economic policies upcoming.
We have new record highs for daily Covid cases and the amounts of people currently Covid hospitalized in the USA.
And this recent data still looks terrible.
The following charts from TrackTheRecovery.org illustrate this stark statement.
Remember, nearly 70% of the US economy is driven by consumer spending, many of whom struggle under mass consumer and housing debts, some now without gainful employment.
Look at the recent job posting data, off nearly -20% at a time when a lot of people need work.
Small business revenues, still off by a 1/4th or -25%.
No matter which party inherits the White House or gains control of the US Senate, regardless of the appointees, they allow continuing perhaps replace with further looting the US Treasury. This apparent let’s “devalue our debt” and “shrink the promises not saved for” party has barely begun.
Infinite QE stimulus and even other lockdowns may be coming this winter 2021.
It appears not long before gold and silver values get manic in response.