Silver Critical Mineral Confirmation, Fed Signaling More QE is Again Needed
- Silver Just Got “Officially Important”: The U.S. Geological Survey has finally added silver to the list of critical minerals — right alongside platinum and palladium. This means Washington now recognizes silver as essential to both the U.S. economy and national security
- America Imports 5x More Silver Than It Mines: The U.S. relies heavily on foreign silver, importing roughly five times more than it produces. Any new tariffs or supply hiccups could quickly rattle the market
- Silver’s Everywhere — and That’s the Problem: From solar panels to EV batteries to medical tech, demand for silver keeps growing. The supply chain is tight — and that’s before factoring in new investment demand as people rediscover silver’s store-of-value appeal
- COMEX Stockpiles Are Draining Fast: More than 50 million ounces of silver left COMEX inventories in October. That’s a big red flag for physical availability — while London lease rates have shot through the roof, signaling supply stress
- China’s Silver and Platinum Appetite Is Roaring: China has already imported about 45% of global platinum production for 2025 and is reportedly considering export restrictions on silver by 2026–27. Translation: the East is quietly cornering the market
- Analysts Are Divided — But Bullish: Jeffrey Christian of CPM Group told CNBC India that gold could average around $5,000/oz in 2026, and silver could hover in the $50 range, depending on investor sentiment and industrial demand
- Michael Oliver Says “$100 Silver Isn’t Crazy”: Veteran trader Michael Oliver argues that the silver market has been artificially suppressed for decades and is due for a massive re-rating. His call? $100–$200 silver within a few quarters if the dam truly breaks
- Central Banks Keep Buying Gold: Brazil topped the list of gold buyers in September, with Poland joining the party in October. Central banks remain steady hands, quietly adding bullion while others chase tech stocks
- The U.S. Debt Clock Won’t Stop: America’s national debt just topped $38.1 trillion, up from $37 trillion a few months ago — with projections pushing $45–47 trillion by 2028. The Fed is hinting at more Quantitative Easing (QE), meaning more dollars chasing the same ounces
- Gold’s True Value Is Still Underappreciated: Even at $4,000/oz, U.S. gold reserves barely cover 16% of the Fed’s balance sheet — a far cry from past eras when gold backed the dollar more directly. If history rhymes, gold and silver still have plenty of room to run
With silver now officially deemed vital to U.S. security and industry, tightening supplies and soaring demand are setting the stage for a powerful move in gold and silver — here’s why investors should be paying close attention.
The spot silver price traded a touch down and the spot price traded flat on the week.
The spot silver price closed at $48.24 oz bid and the spot gold price ended this week trading at $4000.18 oz bid price.
The spot gold silver ratio climbed slightly on gold's strength versus silver this week effectively closing at 83 oz spot silver to afford 1 oz of spot gold.
The US Geological Survey added silver to its critical minerals list this week.
As we have been telling you for years here, it is confirmed that silver is also vital to America’s economy and national security.
Silver along with other major precious metals such as platinum and palladium are all deemed essential by the USA.
Silver’s inclusion has been a concern for precious metals traders and manufacturers that rely on the material for growing industrial inputs of silver into electrical circuits, batteries, solar panels, anti-bacterial medicines, as well as increasing store of value investment demand ongoing.
Any tariffs on silver could wreak havoc on the metals markets because the US relies heavily on imports to meet domestic demand. Remember we on average import like 5 times the amounts of silver we internally mine to meet our ongoing silver demands internally here in the United States.
This news acknowledges silver's vulnerable supply chain.
It could lead to enhanced gov't focus on securing domestic supply chains, support for enhancing permitting in mining and refining, subsidies, and strategic stockpiling initiatives.
Someone better inform the COMEX silver registered pile to stop shipping off domestic silver stockpiles for paltry sums of short term profit taking given higher London lease rates of late.
Just a quick eye ball suggests over 50 million oz of silver have left COMEX's combined eligible and registered silver stockpile this past London silver squeeze month of Oct 2025.
Our friend Bruce in Japan points out lease rates for all 3 critical precious metals: silver, platinum, and palladium have all been spiking in London signaling local shortages of bullion float to lend to end users.
Bruce also recently posted updated Chinese platinum import volumes through September of this year, which totals to about 45% of world year production already off to China through the first 3 quarters of this year 2025. Again, platinum is critical mineral we also need here in the USA.
Given the large drawdowns from Chinese silver warehouses of late, it is not a surprise to now seeing news and reports that China is considering limited silver export rights in 2026 and 2027.
Turning back to London which saw such a draw down of their silver float last month that lease rates had to spike as high as 40% intraday and 200% overnight according to reports of their opaque non-public data.
According to the LBMA's latest silver inventory update, they pulled some +53.8 million oz into its thinned float market, likely buying some time for now, and allowing the silver market to settle down of late.
One major issue remains, more people and investors around the world learned and now know about Silver Demand outstripping Silver Supply to the tune of market deficits now near 5 years running with no forecasted end in sight.
So this trade is still simple for myself.
Spot prices must rise or else we will gonna see lease rates blow and random shortages in various pockets throughout the bullion consuming world again and again.
Let's hear what other precious metals commentators had to say this week. Let's start with over-levered futures and options trading crowd and work our way back into other precious metals commentators. Ah wrong conclusion it's about the physical fundamentals, let's move on.
Someone I often listen to and respect for he is often proven correct. Well not so much in this case.
But CPM Group's Jeffrey Christian went on CNBC India this week, and dropped some average gold quarterly price bombs for 2026 that jives a lot with what many major commercial bank desks have been saying.
Also, fun to end the interview he somehow forgot what their quarterly average silver guess is for next year 2026.
He starts off with how the ongoing US gov't shutdown is potentially hurling us toward a recession and ruining our reputation further, have a look and listen.
Well let me assume the Gold price averages $5,000 like Jeff guesstimates the spot Gold Silver ratio somehow stays around 80. That suggest spot silver in the $60s per ounce next year 2026.
I certainly think these early year guesses at how much silver investment demand there would be in the USA and India will be proven too low when the data adjustments roll forward to come.
Let's go to the silver bull of 2025 who has been proven most accurate in his early takes that silver would bust $50 oz this year. Mr. Micheal Oliver, a man who has traded gold and silver futures since the middle 1970s.
Well, he's gonna infer much of what we do here all too often.
The world silver price has been systemically suppressed, but its shackles are coming undone in ongoing rolling physical supply shortages. That's how markets work by the way, you rig a price too low long, eventually shortages gray markets, and screaming rerating price points higher.
Have a listen to Mr. Oliver from this week.
Now, drop that smoking hot silver forecast 2026.
Alright you get the idea, we're probably looking at back to back smoking years for the physical precious metals. I'm going to make a coffee, and we will be right back after this brief introduction.
You're not gonna want to miss this ending fiat Federal Balance sheet admission and what it portends for gold and the related precious metals as we move forward through this decade into next.
Some central bank gold bullion data continues trickling in for September the leading gold tonnage buyer was the B in BRICS the nation of Brazil.
And for the month of October, it seems growing gold balance sheet powerhouse Poland is buying bullion yet again in size.
The USA's exploding debt levels reached $37 trillion last June 2025, and now $38.1 trillion updated yesterday on the debt to the penny website. At this rate by the time Trump's next three years unfold we'll be looking at around $45 trillion hard debt levels, but hey if we have a recession let's go ahead and blow beyond 47 for numerology fun.
On a more sobering and serious note, the fiat Federal Reserve is already trial ballooning headlines that they are going to need to begin expanding their balance sheet for liquidity needs. AKA, the market will freeze up and fail if they don't, same old infinite QE rob the Treasury further lines incoming.
And so if the next round of balance sheet expansion is anything like they last, we're looking at a doubling and more from the near $6.6 trillion dollar level their balance sheet sits at currently.
In probably the most ridiculous gold bullish headline and then following chart to close this week is this.
The US Gold Reserves with $4000 oz gold spot price is currently valued at just over $1 trillion fiat dollars at the moment, a still historically low level with a mere 16% coverage of the fiat Federal Reserves Balance sheet set to expand further to come.
Look back to 2007 and then more importantly 1972 to get a sense of how far this ratio could rise in through this decade into next.
If we somehow rhyme in time with past Western World driven gold bullion bull markets like 1980, we're talk many multiples still to come for the gold price from here to eventually way up there.
You're going to want to own bullion in aggressive size in other words.
That will be all for this Week's Bullion Market Update.
REFERENCES:
What’s Behind Silver’s Winning Streak? | Presented by CME Group, Bloomberg News
https://youtu.be/wmqAJTJYaqg?si=USmXwiJegZwxhS7C
Silver added to USGS Critical Minerals List in 2025:
https://www.usgs.gov/programs/mineral-resources-program/science/about-2025-list-critical-minerals
Google Gemini search result on Silver's USGS Critical Minerals List inclusion in 2025
https://gemini.google.com/share/c1763f1f9984
Gold's Quarterly Average Price Likely To Hit $5,000 In 2026: CPM Group | CNBC TV18
https://youtu.be/IQXecVMDQ7Y?si=vpDxQgAsOkMpeXRu
