Summary
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Moody’s Downgrade: Moody’s has officially downgraded U.S. debt below AAA, citing unsustainable government spending—making it the last of the big three rating agencies to do so.
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Debt-to-GDP Concerns: The U.S. Congressional Budget Office projects a debt-to-GDP ratio nearing 200% by 2050, even under conservative assumptions, suggesting a deepening fiscal crisis.
- Silver-Gold Ratio Below 100: The gold to silver ratio has fallen below 100, yet silver remains an underperformer in early 2025, frustrating silver bulls.
- Decoupling Correlation: The usual 70%+ gold-silver price correlation has broken down to decade lows—raising questions about silver’s delayed catch-up.
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Equity Market Overvaluation: U.S. stock market valuations are at nearly 200% of GDP—signaling potential long-term underperformance ahead.
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Long-Term Bond Bear Market: The U.S. bond market may be entering a prolonged bear market aligned with escalating government debt.
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Gold Price Consolidation: After a surge in early 2025, gold prices are undergoing a correction; investors are watching closely for the next support level.
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$3,000 Gold Outlook: Nearly half of market participants polled expect another test of $3,000 per ounce before gold resumes its uptrend.
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Chinese Gold Market Activity: China has loosened gold import quotas, triggering increased domestic demand and high levels of futures market speculation.
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Yuan Devaluation Fears: Concerns about further devaluation of the Chinese yuan are fueling persistent gold accumulation on price dips.
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Silver Near Breakout in China: Silver priced in yuan is approaching its 2011 nominal highs, hinting at an imminent breakout.
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ETF Demand Surging Globally: Demand for gold ETFs is climbing, both in China and the West, amid growing macroeconomic uncertainty.
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Bridgewater’s Gold Allocation: Ray Dalio’s Bridgewater has initiated a $320 million GLD position—symbolic more than material, representing <1% of its AUM.
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Perspective on GLD Holdings: GLD ETF holdings (~$95 billion) remain minuscule relative to the estimated $10 trillion in global physical gold holdings.
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Inflation Distortion: Alternative inflation metrics reveal significant underreporting since 1980, implying gold and silver remain undervalued against fiat over the long term.
Market Report: Moody’s downgraded, gold prices consolidate, and Ray Dalio’s fund are turning heads across global markets.
The rip roaring price climb for gold to begin 2025 has cooled much in thanks to the recent 90 day US-China Tariff agreement lowering and delay freeze. August 2025 should become interesting.
Now the current question for most gold bulls onlooking is where will the interim price fall and bottom at in this latest gold price consolidation.
I asked a bunch of bullion bull onlookers on Twitter X for their take and just under half the crowd is expecting one more breach of $3,000 oz gold before the bull begins to re-climb higher ahead.
The Chinese recently loosened their gold import import quotas allowing for larger onshore gold bullion import inflows just in time to take advantage of this latest gold price dip.
And judging by data from last month April 2025, price speculation in the Chinese gold futures market is running near record high levels.
Of course, local Chinese are concerned about further coming devaluations of the fiat Chinese yuan renminbi currency and thus gold continues to be bought on price dips.
You can see the local Chinese gold price has rewarded those with the courage to bet the price breakout over the last few years running up price walls.
One look at their local silver yuan price and you can also see that silver in Chinese terms is beginning to breakout higher not very far from its nominal 2011 price spike high from here.
Unsecured gold ETF demand in China is also spiking in demand, and it is not merely in the eastern world we are seeing gold ETF demand of late.
This week it was disclosed that billionaire investor and global structural order change table banger, Ray Dalio's fund has begun taking a position in GLD, the world's largest unsecured gold ETF.
Allocating nearly $320 million into GLD last month sounds large, but it barely adds up to 1% of Bridgewater Ray Dalio fund's $21.5 billion in assets under management at the moment.
In terms of the global gold market, unsecured GLD holdings if legit and fully allocated add up to about $95 billion at the moment which is only about 1/100th of the roughly $10 trillion currently valued gold bullion bars and coins held by central banks and private bullion savers the world over collectively held at the moment.
Bridgewater's recent $320 million toe into the gold world represents less than 1/30,000th of the world gold bullion price exposure.
In probably the biggest bullion related news of this week, it was reported after trading was closed today that Moody's is now the final of the big 3 rating agencies to downgrade US debt from AAA rating citing out of control spending by the US government not likely to be reduced any time soon.
Our country's own Federal Budget Office has projected our trend towards debt to GDP level nearing 200% by the year 2050 based on low ball assumptions. It's going to happen faster in other words given current and ongoing trends.
Meanwhile the broadest measure of our US stock bubble market has it overvalued currently to the tune of now nearly 200% or two times our country's current GDP suggesting the next few decades won't look like the last.
And the US bond market is likely to endure a bear market lasting about as long as that Congressional budget office exploding debt projection decades from here.
David Einhorn of Greenlight Capital had some comments this week on why gold will be possibly adding a 0 if we keep belligerently barreling down this fiscally irresponsible path.
The spot silver and gold markets moved slightly down on the week closing just before today's news on Moody's downgrading US debt below AAA rating.
The spot silver price finished at $32.26 oz bid and the spot gold price closed at $3,199 oz bid with the spot gold silver ratio finishing below the three digit mark this week closing at 99.
Given ongoing recession concerns globally speaking, this chart illustrates the understandable frustration silver bulls have been experiencing watching gold outperform to start the year now not far from being halfway done.
The typical over 70% correlation between silver vs gold has broken down to a decade and a half rolling low level to begin the year.
And long time commodity market investor and analyst Leigh Goehring was asked ten days ago about his thoughts on the silver market at the moment. His response was as follows.
Finally, to close this week's SD Bullion Market Update.
Incrementum's annual In Gold We Trust Report was published this week, providing over 400 pages of free gold and silver related charts, data, and information for investors to peruse.
In terms of where we were that last time gold tried to reset the system via free market forces versus how far we still have to go this time around. It makes sense why the US government began increasingly rigging the Consumer Price Inflation data since 1980 all the way until now in 2025.
Luckily there are data sets out there which still use the old methodologies for measuring price inflation ongoing, and while masked by productivity gains made by leaps in technology the truth is that gold and silver have major multiples in fiat US dollar prices to come as this current system seems hell bent on spending itself in fiat currency oblivion.
Both gold and silver spot prices this summer will be dearly missed by those who arrive late to this building bullion bull market into an eventual mania to come.
Take advantage of this weekend's bullion sales while supplies last.
That will be all for this week's SD Bullion Market Update.
And as always, take great care of yourselves and those you love.
