Is the silver price really on a path to $100 an ounce — or will history repeat itself at $50 like in 1980 and 2011? I sat down with James Anderson, long-time precious-metals analyst at SD Bullion, to walk through the data chart by chart and get an honest look at what the numbers are saying.
From Silver at $50 to $100: What the Silver Historical Charts Show
James begins by comparing gold and silver’s historical trajectories side by side.
When gold prices broke through its long-standing $2,000 resistance, it doubled to over $4,000 — and silver, historically, tends to follow.
“All silver has to do now is double nominally just to match what gold has already done,” James explains.
“That math alone suggests triple-digit silver is not only possible, it’s likely.”
In short: if gold’s recent move serves as the blueprint, silver’s breakout above $50 may only be the beginning.
Global Demand Signals: Japan & Switzerland Lead the Way
James also pointed out fascinating international data:
-
Japan: Local premiums have surged, with some dealers charging over ¥11,600 per ounce — levels not seen since 1980.
-
Switzerland: Silver demand is heating up as prices approach the old nominal highs, even while gold has nearly doubled in Swiss franc terms.
These aren’t isolated cases; they reflect a global appetite for hard assets amid weakening fiat currencies and supply constraints in major markets.
Gold-to-Silver Ratio: The Hidden Clue
Perhaps the most telling indicator discussed was the gold-to-silver ratio (GSR).
Historically, when silver enters a true bull market, it tends to outperform gold sharply — compressing the GSR from the 80s down toward 30 or lower.
“Once silver starts outperforming gold, it tends to really get going,” says James.
“A move back toward 2011 levels could easily push silver into triple digits.”
Based on current ratios, silver would need to reach roughly $130 per ounce just to match gold’s performance from the last cycle.
Could a Silver Short Squeeze or Supply Crunch Trigger a Moonshot?
James and I also covered short-term catalysts:
-
Refinery bottlenecks in London
-
Tariff uncertainties
-
Physical shortages of 1,000 oz silver bars
These factors could create a scenario similar to palladium's 6x run a few years ago — a “moonshot” spike followed by consolidation.
James emphasized that volatility is inevitable, but the long-term trajectory remains clear: higher prices driven by structural supply limits and broad monetary debasement.
Long-Term Takeaway: Stay Grounded in Data
For new investors entering the silver market, James offered timeless advice:
“Ground yourself in data. Don’t chase the emotional swings.
Know why you’re buying, study the fundamentals, and only deal with trusted, credible sources.”
